BTC Whale Shorts — 4h
Status: Regime entry: a record only — worked in one test window, not the other · Regime #12 · Listed 2026‑10‑14 Instruments: BTCUSDT perpetual only · Timeframe: 4h · Direction: long only Frequency: ~11 trades/yr · Fees: 0.05%/side plus real funding
Why it is in the regime section, not the library
It failed the six‑check bar. It is listed under the regime bar, which asks four things of one of the two test windows: a net profit after fees and funding, still a profit without the best trade, a result above 95% of 400 random‑entry runs with the same exit, and at least 20 trades. It clears all four from February 2024 to October 2026 (24 trades). From May 2021 to February 2024, the window with 2022 in it, it fails the second and third. Everything below the setup is disclosure, not a pass.
Where it fails the full bar:
- Two windows: +9.2% from May 2021 to February 2024, but −13.4% without its best trade, at the 73.5th percentile of random entries. April to June 2022 alone lost 25.7% over 11 trades.
- Cross‑asset: ETH lost in both windows (−1.1%, −30.2%).
- Drawdown: 31.7 summed points in 2021–24, against a bar of 20.
It came out of sweep #15, pre‑registered on 2026‑10‑11: three free positioning and fear channels in front of RSI(14)'s turn up from 30 (the perpetual's discount to spot on BTC, ETH and BNB; options‑implied volatility and Bitfinex's margin shorts on BTC and ETH) in two windows. That is 14 window tests. With a 95th‑percentile bar, about one window test in twenty clears by luck alone. Three cleared the percentile: this one (99.5th), the perp discount on BNB in 2021–24 (98.5th), and options panic on BTC in 2024–26 (98th) on 13 trades, under the 20‑trade minimum.
Why the app can't run it
Its gate reads Bitfinex's margin short positions in BTC, the open shorts of a different exchange's margin traders, published hourly, ranked against the last 28 days. The strategy language has no atom or feed for them and no rolling percentile, so the gate can't be written; the RSI trigger and the trailing exit are ordinary.
The setup
Market: crypto BTCUSDT perpetual, 4h trading timeframe. Longs only. Gate: Bitfinex's BTC margin short positions (hourly, read an hour after each reading's stamp) at or above their trailing 28‑day 90th percentile, whales crowded short. Entry (4h):
RSI(14) crosses above 30while the gate is open. Exit: trailing stop 2×ATR(14) below the highest price since entry. Fees: 0.05%/side (Binance USDT‑M taker) · funding charged and credited at every settlement held through.
Evidence: two windows on Binance perpetual candles and Bitfinex margin positions
| Window | Trades | PF | Return | Strip‑best | Sum DD | Account DD | Random‑entry percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2021 → Feb 2024 | 36 | 1.13 | +9.2% | −13.4% | 31.7 | 30.3% | 73.5th |
| Feb 2024 → Oct 2026 | 24 | 2.42 | +31.6% | +20.4% | 10.9 | 7.8% | 99.5th |
Returns are per‑trade percentages summed, like every return in the research log. Holding BTC lost 26.9% in the first window and made +99.0% in the second.
- Random entries, 2024–26: 400 runs of the same exit on random bars, with the real funding billed, had a median of −2.1% and a 95th percentile of +19.6%.
- Random entries, 2021–24: a median of −6.2% and a 95th percentile of +34.3%.
The record by year
| Year | 2021* | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 3 | 25 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 6 |
| Return | +2.0% | −17.3% | +25.4% | +20.2% | +12.6% | −2.0% |
*2021 from May, 2026 through September. Each trade counts in the year it was entered.
- 2022 is the break: 25 trades, −17.3%, and April to June alone lost 25.7% over 11 trades. The first window's profit came after it: one trade in March 2023 made +22.6%.
- Last high: June 2025, at +48.5% summed since May 2021. It ended September 2026 at +40.9%, 7.6 points below.
- Last twelve months (October 2025 to September 2026): 9 trades, −4.5%.
What the result depends on
Nothing else was run: sweep #15 ran its fee stress, its channel‑lag check and its neighbors only for a strategy that cleared gates 1–5 on two assets, and none did (research log, sweep #15, “Results”).
Before you rely on it
- It failed in the window that contains 2022: +9.2% in 2021–24 only because of its best trade (−13.4% without it), with a 31.7-point drawdown.
- It is not alone: every gated oversold turn on BTC that did well in 2024–26 (this one, the options‑panic version and library entry #1's own reference run) failed in the window that contains 2022.
- Since its last high in June 2025 it has lost 7.6 points over 12 trades.
Every number here can be re‑run: npx tsx scripts/research/sweep15-rsi-crypto-channels.ts for the
windows and the null. The record by year, the last twelve months and the last high are the same
runs' trades, grouped by the date they were entered.