BTC RSI Back Above 50 in a Daily Uptrend — 4h
Status: Regime entry: worked in one test window, not the other · Regime #1 · Listed 2026‑10‑14 Instruments: BTCUSDT perpetual only · Timeframe: 4h, trend read on the daily · Direction: long only Frequency: ~43 trades/yr · Fees: 0.05%/side plus real funding
Why it is in the regime section, not the library
It failed the six‑check bar. It is listed under the regime bar, which asks four things of one of the two test windows: a net profit after fees and funding, still a profit without the best trade, a result above 95% of 400 random‑entry runs with the same exit, and at least 20 trades. It clears all four from April 2020 to April 2023 (115 trades). From April 2023 to October 2026 it fails the first three. Everything below the setup is disclosure, not a pass.
Where it fails the full bar:
- Two windows: −15.4% from April 2023 to October 2026 (PF 0.90).
- Cross‑asset: ETH made +71.5% in 2020–23, but no more than random entries did (72nd percentile), and lost 26.4% in 2023–26. BNB lost 26.7% in 2020–23.
- Drawdown: 36.2 summed points in its good window and 31.4 in the other, against a bar of 20.
It came out of sweep #16, pre‑registered on 2026‑10‑12: buy when RSI comes back to 50 on a lower timeframe while the higher timeframe trends up, tested four ways on BTC, ETH and BNB in two windows. That is 24 window tests. With a 95th‑percentile bar, one or two of 24 would clear by luck alone. Two did: this one at the 99.3rd percentile, and regime #2 at the 98th.
The setup (compilable spec)
Market: crypto BTCUSDT perpetual, 4h trading timeframe. Longs only. Trend (daily, last closed bar):
EMA(20) > EMA(50). Entry (4h):RSI(14) crosses back above 50. Exit: trailing stop 2×ATR(14) below the highest price since entry. Fees: 0.05%/side (Binance USDT‑M taker) · funding charged and credited at every settlement held through.
Evidence: two windows on Binance perpetual candles
| Window | Trades | PF | Return | Strip‑best | Sum DD | Account DD | Random‑entry percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2020 → Apr 2023 | 115 | 1.78 | +111.5% | +87.8% | 36.2 | 16.7% | 99.3rd |
| Apr 2023 → Oct 2026 | 162 | 0.90 | −15.4% | −26.5% | 31.4 | 28.0% | 32.5th |
Returns are per‑trade percentages summed, like every return in the research log. Holding BTC made +347.1% and +192.9% over the same windows.
- Random entries, 2020–23: 400 runs of the same exit on random bars had a median of +12.6% and a 95th percentile of +78.0%. Drawn only from bars inside the same daily uptrend, the median was +30.9% and the 95th percentile +85.0%, and the real run sits at the 98.3rd. In that window the RSI timing added something beyond being long in an uptrend.
- Fees: at 0.1%/side, 2020–23 still made +100.0% (PF 1.67, strip‑best +76.4%), and 2023–26 lost 31.6%.
- Fills: filled at the next bar's open instead of the signal bar's close, both windows are unchanged to the decimal. A market that trades around the clock opens where it closed.
The record by year
| Year | 2020* | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 42 | 53 | 6 | 58 | 49 | 46 | 23 |
| Return | +85.7% | +4.2% | −9.2% | +29.2% | +3.6% | −10.2% | −7.3% |
*2020 from April, 2026 through September. Each trade counts in the year it was entered.
- Three quarters made all of its money: October 2020 to March 2021 (+104.1%) and January to March 2023 (+30.7%). The other 20 quarters with trades lost 38.7 points between them.
- 2022 is the trend filter at work: the daily uptrend held on 10% of the year's 4h bars, so it took six trades.
- Last high: December 2024, at +123.6% summed since April 2020. It ended September 2026 at +96.1%, 27.5 points below.
- Last twelve months (October 2025 to September 2026): 25 trades, −11.8%.
What the result depends on
The four neighbors sweep #16 pre‑registered, run after the listing decision as disclosure:
| Change | 2020–23 return | Strip‑best | Random‑entry percentile | 2023–26 return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI level 45 instead of 50 | +6.2% | −18.1% | 47.5th | −33.4% |
| RSI level 55 | +56.1% | +35.2% | 88th | −25.7% |
| Uptrend = daily close above EMA(50) | +99.6% | +75.9% | 98.3rd | +8.4% |
| 3×ATR trail instead of 2× | +85.6% | +63.3% | 95th | +10.8% |
A different trend read or a wider trail keeps the 2020–23 result. A different RSI level does not: at 45 it is no better than random entries.
Before you adopt it
- You are betting that BTC trades like late 2020 or early 2023 again. It has lost money in 2025 and so far in 2026.
- Size it for its drawdowns, 36 and 31 summed points, not for the library's 20.
- Paper‑trade it first. Adopting it watches BTCUSDT on the 4h chart and alerts every setup, about 43 a year.
Every number here can be re‑run: npx tsx scripts/research/sweep16-rsi-midline-pullback.ts for
the windows and the null, and npx tsx scripts/research/regime-entries-sweep16.ts for the fee
stress, fills, neighbors and the year‑by‑year record.